The Evolution of Civilizations - deja vous over and over again

They say that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. I would like to recommend a book that reinforces this adage from the perspective of civilizations as a whole.

History has shown time and time again that significant treatises are often not recognized until long after a particular work has been published and often well after their author is deceased. I submit that one of these works will be The Evolution of Civilizations by the late historian Carroll Quigley (1910-1977).

I had never heard of Quigley and was drawn to his book because it was listed among Bill Clinton's 21 favorites which were displayed when his presidential library was opened in Little Rock in 2003. Of course, inclusion on this list was no guarantee of excellence - the list includes Living History by Hillary Clinton. That being said, I have found most of the books listed to be superb: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/11/21/politics/main585068.shtml

The Evolution of Civilizations is an analysis of the sixteen major civilizations which comprise mankind's recorded history, from the Persian empire established in Mesopotamia around 6000 B.C. to the Western civilization that contineus to the present day. Quigley points out the remarkable fact that all of history's recorded civilizations (with the exception of ours which is still ongoing) have passed through the same 7 stages:

1. Mixture;

2. Gestation;

3. Expansion;

4. Age of Conflict;

5. Universal Empire;

6. Decay; and

7. Invasion.

Quigley makes pains to point out that the seven stages are merely a convenient way of dividing a complex historical process. In theory, a stage might be omitted entirely and any particular stage can last for a prolonged period. For example, ancient Egypt was so well protected by seas and deserts against invaders that its Stage of Decay lasted more than a millenium. Also, in light of the fact that our modern Western civilization might well eventually cover the entire globe, there may be no external "barbarians" to serve as invaders. In other words, there is no reason in principle why the decay must be followed by an invasion - the decay itself could lead to the extinction.

Quigley makes such a convincing case for his deterministic chronology (my words, not his) that the reader arrives at his chapter on Western Civilization very curious to see where he pegs us on his continuum. Obviously, our civilization is one of the most difficult to analyze because it remains unfinished, we are part of it and lack perspective. Quigley also explains that our civilization does not follow the straightforward pattern of seven simple stages. We appear to have passed through three stages of expansion (the instruments of which were the feudal system, commercial capitalism and the Industrial Revolution/monopoly capitalism). Each period of exapansion was followed by an Age of Conflict, the most recent beginning at about 1890.

Writing in 1961, Quigley felt it was too early to judge if we were moving into a fourth age of expansion or whether our civilization would move into another Age of Conflict and on into a universal empire and ultimately to decay and invasion. My bet is that we are moving into the Age of Conflict which Quigely tells us is marked by four chief characteristics:

(a) period of decliving rate of expansion;

(b) a period of growing tension of evolution and increasing class conflicts, especially in the core area [don't we see an ever growing spread between the "haves" and the "have nots" among world nations?]

(c) a period of increasing frequent and increasingly violent imperialistic wars [am I the only one to see an imperialist underpinning to the U.S. presence in Iraq and Afghanistan?]

(d) a period of growing irrationality, pessimism, superstitions and other-worldiness.

The last factor is the one that caught my attention and remember that Quigley is relying on trends that have displayed themselves in over a dozens prior great civilizations prior to mtheir ultimate demise. He describes the Age of Conflict as follows:

"The Age of Conflict (Stage 4) is a period of imperialist wars and of irrationality for reasons that are usually different in the different social classes. The masses of the people (who have no vested interest in the existing institution of expansion) engage in imperialist wars because it seems the only way to overcome the slowing down of expansion. Unable to get ahead by other means (such as economic means), they seek to get ahead by political action, above all by taking wealth from their political neighbours. At the same time they turn to irrationality to compensate for the growing insecurity of life, for the chronic economic depression, for the growing bitterness and dangers of class struggles, for the growing social disruption and insecurity from imperialist wars. This is generally a period of gambling, use of narcotics or intoxicants, obsession with sex (frequently as perversion), increasing crime, growing numbers of neurotics and psychotics, growing obsession with death and with the Hereafter."

What I found most compelling about Quigley's description was how close to form each and every previous civilization has "held to script". It's just deja vous over and over again.

Postscript - if this topic interests you, I highly recommend Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast #17 Judgment at Ninevah (available for free on iTunes).